The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made a special statement on the 25thanniversary of the ceasefire in Karabakh. “May 12 is the 25thanniversary of the ceasefire agreement signed by the representatives of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. The agreement was reached with direct mediation by the Russian Federation. It allowed stopping the bloodshed and launching the process of political-diplomatic settlement of Karabakh. The May 12 agreement is the basis for maintenance of the ceasefire regime to this day,” the statement of the Russian foreign ministry says.
Moscow indeed wishes to underline its role in establishing ceasefire in Artsakh, showing who the “host” is. However, Armenia and Artsakh are waiting for answers why Moscow has armed Azerbaijan for so many years. Russia does not answer this essential question but supplying Azerbaijan with ammunition devaluates Russia’s mission of initiator and guarantor of the ceasefire.
How is Moscow going to act in the Karabakh conflict? We can see the readiness of the sides to continue joint efforts to achieve lasting peace. Recently Russia has started repeating frequently that it will support any decision made by the sides. However, some experts think it is a confession of Moscow’s helplessness that the processes are out of his control.
After the victory of the revolution the Armenian side adjusted its approaches towards the Artsakh settlement and leads several parallel discourses. At the diplomatic level, Armenia puts forth the issue of restoring the three-party talks involving Artsakh to ensure that obligations assumed by everyone are carried out.
At the same time, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun Party initiates a strategic cooperation agreement that covers security inter alia. This agreement suggests the recognition of Artsakh.
Armenia remains the sole guarantor of security of Artsakh, Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan said. Armenia was and remains the guarantor of security of our 150,000 compatriots living in Karabakh. We have lots of forms and tools to express and ensure this process of acting as a guarantor,” he said.
In its turn, the Ministry of Defense states the new strategy. Minister Davit Tonoyan announces change of the military doctrine and transition from defensive to counteroffensive strategy, and on the other hand, he announces that the Armenian side answers the cases of violation of ceasefire by Azerbaijan and tries to achieve advantage, not balance.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has stated that in the past 25 years Azerbaijan has intensively prepared for war. According to him, all the sides must remain loyal to the Vienna statement which says that the ceasefire must be maintained and strengthened.
In fact, as basis for ceasefire Nikol Pashinyan refers to the Vienna agreement reached in April 2019. In its statement Moscow refers to the 1994 ceasefire agreement which was signed by three parties, including Karabakh. The two agreements do not contradict to each other.