The former Armenian Ambassador in Vatican Mikayel Minasyan has recently announced about possible arrest of Serzh Sargsyan, commenting on this in the context of the post-revolutionary governance shortcomings of the new government. According to him, this government has failed to meet the revolutionary expectations and achieve results that matched the new opportunities and is therefore serving prosecution of former government to the public which, however, does not produce the same effect in public perception.
It is beyond doubt that these arrests are not perceived unequivocally. In addition, the same attitude was at the height of the revolution. Not all layers of the public in Armenia look at the arrest of former officials as an absolute way of achieving change in Armenia.
Nonetheless, is Mikayel Minasyan trying to prevent Serzh Sargsyan’s arrest or is he, on the contrary, trying to prompt that this is what the revolution needs at the current stage? In any case, Mikayel Minasyan is quite experienced to know that his statements about inefficiency of the revolution may produce the opposite impact on the public and set people against the author of this statement and the system he is associated with.
At this point it is essential to know what his approach is based on that prosecution of former high-ranking officials will not produce the “same effect”.
Because, after all, there is another circumstance – the context or possible context of “encouraging” the new government. If Serzh Sargsyan is not arrested, an impression will be produced that the government refrained from this arrest due to the scandal caused beforehand. It will mean that the Republican Party will mark a victory as some Republicans joined to support Minasyan’s “alert”.
The purpose is hardly to sell the victory to Sargsyan. Serzh Sargsyan is experienced enough to understand that if the issue of his arrest has been raised, and there is a political decision, no “alert” will prevent it. Hence, the target, if there is such a context, whether intentionally or not, is the public opinion. If Serzh Sargsyan is not arrested, there is a high probability that it will be seen as the weakness of the government and the small victory of the Republican Party.
And what will happen if Serzh Sargsyan is arrested?
There is an impression that Serzh Sargsyan needs this arrest more than the new government.
There is such impression if certainly we look at the situation in the context of this presumption that the campaign preceding his possible arrest does contain some layers which may indicate the possibility of the effect of encouraging the new government for the purpose of protecting or preventing the arrest.
Will the government give up to the expectations of the third president?
On the other hand, there is a more simple motivation, that of the decision on arrest which caused the action of not wasting time and starting intensive protection.