What Will Robert Kocharyan Do? A U-turn


The Court of Appeals has made a decision to release Robert Kocharyan on bail. The judge set a bail at 2 billion drams. This decision has caused a storm in the already intense domestic life.
There is no doubt that intensive discussions would start on “coups”, “counterrevolution” and other suggestions. This is the chronic condition of the post-revolutionary Armenia because two years later, due to several objective and dominantly subjective reasons the public consciousness and psychology has not been reinforced and politicized in the context of national issues and global challenges but “infected” with fear and lack of confidence instead.

The public looks at the domestic developments though this prism. The participants of the domestic game, almost all of them, do not allow the public to go beyond it and everyone has their reason for doing so.

In fact, strange though it may sound, in the current situation we are dealing with a subtle game in which we can draw a conclusion which sounds mystical at first sights: “Russia gave up on Robert Kocharyan, Armenia released him.”

This statement may sound strange to the public ear, considering what the public ear has heard about politics over year or rather everything it heard except politics. Obviously, shortly after the revolution Robert Kocharyan was arrested because Russia did not prevent, like it did in the case of several other “heroes” of the March 1 case and other scandalous cases.

This circumstance was acceptable for Yerevan, considering the post-revolutionary political problems that Nikol Pashinyan faced, including in terms of transformation of the relations with Russia. It became clear over time that Russia which had accepted the velvet revolution as a process and an outcome did not intend to accept it as a prospect and a new reality.

In Russia there is a change in the mindset of its elite on Armenia, which a process that requires long-term effort.

In this context, Robert Kocharyan’s custody started playing against rather than for Armenia, making it clear why Russia did not set obstacles and even further encouraged his custody. Let’s recall Lavrov’s famous statement made in July 2018.

In fact, Robert Kocharyan became a “blanket” covering the encroachments upon the sovereignty of Armenia, which was especially obvious in the developments of the past few weeks. Yerevan responded toughly after Gagik Tsarukyan and his Prosperous Armenia Party got involved into the game with determination. Afterwards, once the motion for remanding in custody Tsarukyan was sent to court, the court decided to release Kocharyan on bail.

This ruling was passed at a domestic U-turn in the Republic of Armenia. If Robert Kocharyan, is not a participant of the game against Armenia, he will get engaged in this game intentionally or not, in the context of his political objectives and motives, knowing perfectly who gave up on him and who replaced his custody with bail.

If Robert Kocharyan is part of the game against the sovereignty of Armenia, he is placed in a situation when he has to go and join the game once he leaves the jail, this time openly, unlike in 2012-2015.

What will the second president do after custody is replaced with bail, what will be his assessment of the situation and the reputation he mentioned so many times in court? This reputation had very little to do with his past political career but he has a chance to link his future to that reputation.

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